On 7 February 2025, Muir Analytics delivered a hotel threat presentation to the National Capital Region (NCR) chapter of the American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS), alongside several other presenters.* The audience included a diverse group of private and government sector security professionals, hosted by the highly professional MGM National Harbor Hotel & Casino security team.
The purpose of Muir Analytics’ briefing was to provide a strategic overview of the most likely and potential hotel threats for 2025, based on threat trends observed up to the date of the presentation. While this analysis reflects the prevailing risks at the time, it is possible that new threats not covered in this briefing may emerge as the year progresses. Lastly, these threats are presented primarily from a strategic perspective, rather than a tactical one. For more details on both strategic and tactical threat trends against hotels, contact Muir Analytics here or call 1-833-DATA-444.
*By publicly releasing this briefing, Muir Analytics waives its “proprietary and confidential” designation; however, this material remains copyrighted.
Here, Muir Analytics explains the fundamentals of estimating both “standard” and “non-standard” threats that are either: A) likely to evolve, or B) realistically possible to evolve. One method for making such estimates is analyzing past hotel violence trends to determine whether they will persist into the future – an outcome that is typically “yes.”
Less certain but still plausible threats fall within the realm of Indications and Warnings (I&W) intelligence. I&W assesses data points on emerging risks that could escalate into violent actions by criminals, terrorists, or warmakers. As a result, I&W provides risk/insurance, and security professionals with early warnings about potential threats, allowing them to enhance preparedness, improve protection, and strengthen business resiliency.
Here, Muir Analytics explains the fundamentals of protective intelligence and its critical role in strengthening mitigation plans. Without protective intelligence, risk/insurance, and security providers are merely guessing. A key factor is identifying broader threat trends, rather than relying on isolated case studies.
Here, we further elaborate on the “how” of I&W and its critical benefits. The key takeaway is that I&W enables a proactive approach to threat mitigation, which in turn enhances insurance and security measures while reducing the risk and impact of hotel security negligence lawsuits.
Applying hotel I&W establishes the conditions for successful threat mitigation before threats materialize. In many cases, it can even help prevent these threats from occurring.
Hotels are the world’s most violent business sector
In the US alone, an estimated 30 to 80 acts of violence occur at hotels every month – based solely on reported incidents in the press. The actual numbers can be at least 10 times higher, depending on the country or city, and the type of violence perpetrated.
From an insurance perspective, hotel-related risks span multiple categories, including violent crime (typically covered under general liability and business interruption policies), malicious damage, strike/riot/civil commotion (SRCC), terrorism, and war. These perils range from fistfights, stabbings, arson, chemical attacks, vehicle attacks, and raids to shootings, bombings, and even military-grade weaponry in conflict zones such as Africa, Ukraine, and the Middle East.
Additionally, sexual assaults and human trafficking remain at alarmingly high levels.
This slide clearly illustrates US hotel violence trends
Shootings overwhelmingly top the list, followed by stabbings, physical assaults, arson, and various combinations of these, such as assaults paired with arson. Some incidents – particularly physical and sexual assaults – are significantly underreported. Despite this, the data presented here provides the most accurate approximation of hotel violence in the US. We fully expect these trends to persist into 2025.
The two terrorist attacks shown are unusual for the US, but small-scale or lower-impact terrorist incidents do occur, and hotels are frequently affected.
Additionally, political violence at US hotels is on the rise, with some incidents potentially meeting the legal definition of terrorism, depending on how law enforcement, federal authorities, or insurance companies classify them. These categorizations often depend on prosecutorial discretion and specific insurance policy language.
Notably, the fact that 2025 began with a terrorist incident underscores a volatile US domestic landscape, suggesting that further acts of terrorism remain a real possibility. See Slide 11 for more details on terrorism trends.
Typical hotel threat trends in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and India
Canada often experiences hotel violence trends similar to those in the US. In the UK, arson remains a significant concern, occurring at a notably high frequency, but we did not see this reported in open sources in January 2025. Recently, the UK endured a wave of SRCC incidents at 10 hotels across England and Northern Ireland. They were orchestrated by right-wing rioters targeting hotels housing asylum seekers and seemingly some individuals who had entered the UK illegally, seeking economic, religious, political, or other forms of relief.
Four of these hotels experienced minor SRCC, sustaining little damage but still requiring counter-riot forces for protection. Two – one in Hull and another in Bristol – suffered moderate SRCC-related damage. The most severe incidents occurred at two Holiday Inn Express properties in Tamworth and Rotherham, both of which endured heavy damages. Without the swift and decisive response of multiple police units, these hotels could have been burned to the ground, with potentially catastrophic casualties.
Physical assaults at Australian hotels are common, while shootings are less frequent but do occur. The same applies to India, though sexual assaults are notably more prevalent.
Standard hotel threat trends in these countries are expected to persist into 2025. Additionally, immigration-related SRCC incidents in the UK – and potentially other countries – remain a distinct possibility.
Assorted hotel threats in other countries
These are typical, random trends for a host of countries around the world. Some commentary here, however, is helpful to explain various patterns. Violence in Singapore is rare, making the recent incident particularly notable. The SRCC violence in Malaysia highlights how fallout from Hamas’ actions can extend well beyond the Levant and the Middle East.
Thailand, once plagued by high levels of hotel violence in its southern border provinces, has seen a reduction due to effective counterinsurgency efforts. Most of what we see at Thai hotels now is criminal violence. However, terrorist groups are attempting a resurgence, and while the vast majority of hotel-related attacks have occurred in the southern border provinces, incidents have also taken place in other areas of the country. Vigilance remains essential.
Reporting from Latin America remains limited. Some countries, such as El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras, have historically struggled to develop a strong hotel sector due to persistent crime that has deterred business travelers and tourists. However, El Salvador’s sweeping crime crackdown aims to reverse this trend.
In Brazil, in-country reporting indicates that while hotel violence does occur, it remains relatively uncommon.
Hotel violence in Mexico remains a persistent issue, and this trend could escalate further following the Trump administration’s official designation of several cartels as terrorist organizations. See Slide 14 for more details.
Far left hotel threats in the US
Far-left and far-right political violence remain ongoing threats to hotels in the US, as well as other potential targets.
Currently, over 95% of political violence at US hotels is attributed to far-left actors. While the far right has engaged in violence within the US, incidents specifically targeting hotels have been minimal – though this could change at any time.
Far-left motivations for hotel-related violence have included, but are not limited to, issues associated with Black Lives Matter, the 2022 George Floyd riots (which resulted in $2 billion in property damage, including hotel damage), homelessness policies, anti-police and anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sentiment, opposition to Donald J. Trump, and general hostility toward conservative individuals and organizations.
In 2025, anger from far-left groups toward the political right and the Trump administration is expected to continue, along with acts of left-wing violence targeting hotels and other locations. The increasingly aggressive rhetoric – including calls to “fight in the streets,” threats against ICE agents, claims that democracy is ending, oppressor-vs.-oppressed narratives, Nazi comparisons, and other dehumanizing labels – will, for some, serve as rallying cries for protest, while others may interpret them as justifications for violent action.
Potential threats include assassination attempts against right-leaning politicians (as evidenced by two failed attempts on then-candidate Donald Trump in 2024), violent protests and riots, arson, and other disruptive tactics. Large-scale attacks, such as Mumbai-style raids or the use of explosives, would be outside the norm for the US, though lesser raids have occurred (note the above-mentioned raids in Fife and Olympia). However, as far-left political tensions escalate, such scenarios cannot be ruled out.
Far right hotel threats in the US
Far-right political violence at US hotels (and other locations) is also a possibility in 2025. The Trump International Hotel bomber in Las Vegas, who called for a political uprising, technically committed an act of terrorism. Additionally, an armed group associated with the January 6th riot staged at a hotel in Arlington, Virginia, while other far-right individuals have used hotels in the DC area to coordinate threats against left-wing politicians.
Given today’s highly charged political climate, a repeat of these events is entirely possible, along with further far-right violence targeting left-wing politicians and their supporters at hotels and other venues.
On the extreme far-right front, white supremacist groups have issued threats in 25 states and engaged in overt acts of violence in tourist destinations such as Nashville, where a large street brawl occurred in a tourist area. Nashville was also the site of a major white supremacist plot involving an IED attack on Tennessee’s energy grid. The willingness of such groups to target civilian areas, including tourist districts, and/or use explosives underscores a broader national security concern. If these threats materialize, hotels will almost certainly be affected.
International terrorism hotel threats
Islamist jihadist groups are on the rise globally, as headlines report almost weekly. Former FBI Director Christopher Wray repeatedly warned of this growing threat throughout 2023 and 2024. Similarly, Dr. Sebastian Gorka, White House Senior Director for Counterterrorism (National Security Council), has issued strong warnings about the risks of Islamist jihadist terrorism in 2025, both in the US and internationally.
As an aside, Director Wray’s warnings have specifically addressed pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian threats, as well as those from Iran (see Slide 13). Dr. Gorka has also extensively cautioned against these threats.
Given that Islamist jihadist groups – including ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the southern Thai insurgency (which is also an extremist, racist Malay ethno-nationalist movement), Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Shabaab, and many others – are responsible for over 80% of hotel-related terror attacks, these trends are expected to continue in 2025.
The ISIS attack on New Orleans on New Year’s Day is a clear confirmation of this ongoing threat. Particularly concerning is the fact that this attacker constructed IEDs using RDX, a powerful military-grade explosive. Traditionally, RDX is commercially manufactured, but according to the FBI, this assailant was able to synthesize it from scratch. Given that RDX is both highly stable and extremely destructive due to its high velocity of detonation, the fact that hostile groups or individuals may now be able to manufacture it independently poses a significant threat. If this knowledge spreads, it could lead to devastating attacks both in the US and abroad – with hotels being especially vulnerable.
These groups have also carried out some of the deadliest hotel attacks in history, such as:
- The April 2019 ISIS bombings of four hotels and three churches in Sri Lanka (see a video here).
- The June 2015 ISIS mass shooting and grenade attack at the Riu Imperial Marhaba hotel in Sousse, Tunisia (read more here).
Islamist jihadist groups have conducted attacks in both developed and developing countries, including the United States, France, Germany, and the UK – not just in regions such as Africa (where some areas are being overrun by jihadists), Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Hotels across these regions have been prime targets.
Additionally, the fact that scores of ISIS operatives crossed into the US via its open borders in 2023–2024 is deeply concerning. None of this bodes well for hotel security moving forward.
However, Islamist jihadist groups are not the only non-state actors targeting hotels. Other militant organizations, such as the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), the New Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland, and the People’s War Group in India, have also been known to carry out attacks against hotels.
Anti-Israel/anti-Jewish hotel threats
Hamas’ 7 October 2023 terrorist raid on Israel, which resulted in the murder of over 1,200 people and the kidnapping of more than 200 hostages, triggered pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian protests across the US and dozens of other countries in support of these actions. Israel’s subsequent military operation in Gaza – which also targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Hamas’ closest ally) – sparked additional protests, many of which called for intifada, meaning continued violent action against Israel and its supporters, including the US.
Beyond anti-Israel sentiment, explicitly anti-Jewish political actions emerged, particularly on US college campuses (such as New York University in New York City) and in other cities worldwide.
This wave of violence also included harassment, physical assaults, and vandalism targeting hotels in multiple countries, including (but not limited to) Israel, Ireland, Spain, Russia, Germany, and the US. In many cases, the perpetrators were either hunting for Jewish individuals inside hotels or attacking hotels with even the slightest connection to Jews or Israel.
Additionally, Hamas has openly called for violent action against American and British interests worldwide. Several anti-Jewish/pro-Hamas plots have already been foiled in the US and abroad. Given Israel’s military success in Gaza, these threats are expected to continue into 2025.
We anticipate an ongoing risk of pro-Hamas violence at hotels worldwide in 2025 for the following reasons:
- Israel’s military operations against Hamas have been devastating. As a result, Hamas and its supporters are likely to seek revenge through attacks on soft targets.
- Some left-wing politicians in the US have been slow – or entirely absent – in condemning pro-Hamas ideology and violence. This silence may be interpreted by some as tacit approval, encouraging further radicalization.
- University leadership at institutions where pro-Hamas violence, intimidation, and building takeovers have occurred has, in many cases, openly supported such actions. This signals blatant approval for escalating activism, which can evolve into violence.
- Hamas and its allies are deeply rooted in Islamist jihadist ideology – the same ideology that drives more than 80% of all global hotel terrorist violence.
- The pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian movement is failing to achieve its goals, which increases the likelihood of radical splinter groups resorting to high-order violence. This pattern is explained by social movement theory, which has historically led to the formation of new terror groups.
Similar ideological radicalization in the 1960s spawned groups such as the Baader-Meinhof Gang (Red Army Faction), the Japanese Red Army, and the Weather Underground. In the 1980s, this phenomenon gave rise to groups such as Peru’s Shining Path.
As a result, hotels will remain high-risk targets for the pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian movement. Catastrophic scenarios – including Mumbai-style raids and bombings – cannot be ruled out.
Anti-pro-Palestinian/pro-Hamas hotel threats
Opponents of the pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian movement have engaged in threats of violence at hotels, and they have conducted violence at other locales.
Two known examples include incidents at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Crystal City, Virginia, and the Hilton Houston Post Oak by the Galleria. And in November 2023, a man in Burlington, Vermont, shot and wounded three Palestinian men walking down the street. Given the escalating political and ideological divide, further retaliatory violence against pro-Hamas/pro-Palestinian individuals and groups is highly likely in 2025.
Iran-related hotel threats
Given Iran’s track record of targeting Jewish, Israeli, and Western-linked targets, including hotels, expect this threat to persist and evolve in 2025. Iran operates through state-directed terror cells, proxies, and even criminal networks, as seen in Sri Lanka, Istanbul, Germany, Greece, and France – all of which involved plots or attacks on Jewish-affiliated businesses, two involving hotels.
Because hotels are accessible, crowded, and symbolically significant, Iran will continue to use them as staging grounds for ambushes, arson, bombings, or hostage scenarios. The growing use of criminal proxies, such as drug gangs, lowers barriers for future attacks and makes Iranian-backed operations harder to detect and disrupt.
The Iranian threat to hotels (and other civilian targets) in 2025 will continue as follows:
- Continued hotel plots in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, targeting Jewish and Israeli travelers, Western diplomats, and business leaders.
- Potential escalation to Mumbai-style raids or bombings, particularly in response to Israeli military successes or geopolitical shifts.
- Increased use of organized crime networks to execute attacks, reducing Iran’s direct exposure.
Russia-related hotel threats
Given Russia’s repeated attacks on hotels in Ukraine and its sabotage campaign across Europe, hotels will remain potential targets in 2025. Since 2022, over 20 hotels in Ukraine have been hit by military ordnance, a trend that will likely continue unless a peace deal is reached.
Beyond Ukraine, Russia has intensified covert sabotage operations across Europe, aiming to terrorize Western governments into halting support for Ukraine. These efforts include stabbings, bombings, and arson, targeting military bases, defense companies, logistics hubs, and critical infrastructure. With Russian saboteurs arrested in Poland, the UK, Germany, and Spain, Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to escalate attacks on soft targets in Europe.
This violence is expected to continue, and hotels are likely to be affected. In fact, this has already happened, as seen in June 2024, when a pro-Russian Donbas operative accidentally detonated a bomb while assembling it at the B&B Hotel near Paris CDG Airport.
Mexico hotel threats
Muir Analytics has extensively documented violence at Mexican hotels, with past incidents involving shootings that have injured and killed both foreign and Mexican vacationers. For examples, see here and here. This trend is expected to continue in 2025.
If the US follows through on designating certain cartels as terrorist organizations,* and if the Mexican government cooperates in enforcement, escalated violence is a strong possibility. Mexican cartels are notoriously brutal against each other, and government pressure could trigger internal cartel warfare, retaliatory attacks, and turf battles. Given the alleged cartel links to Mexico’s hotel sector – particularly for money laundering and the retail drug market – this violence could spill over into resort areas and hotels.
Additionally, cartels may retaliate against the Mexican government by targeting resorts, hotels, and American vacationers. Smaller gangs could exploit cartel instability to seize power, as seen in Tulum, where cartel conflicts have resulted in resort violence.
However, if government pressure becomes too intense, cartels may opt for self-preservation, reducing violence and seeking negotiated settlements with Mexican authorities. That said, Mexican tourist areas and hotels should prepare for worst-case scenarios.
*Update: Since giving this briefing, the US government officially designated the following groups as terrorist organizations:
- Tren de Aragua (TdA) (Venezuelan).
- Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) (El Salvadoran).
- Cártel de Sinaloa (Mexican).
- Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) (Mexican).
- Cártel del Noreste (CDN) (Mexican).
- La Nueva Familia Michoacana (LNFM) (Mexican).
- Cártel de Golfo (CDG) (Mexican).
- Cárteles Unidos (CU) (Mexican).
Trans radicalism hotel threats
Violence linked to radicalized elements of the trans movement is a growing concern. Even after this briefing was first delivered, a trans teen was arrested on 13 February 2025, for allegedly plotting a mass school shooting in Indiana. Some individuals within this movement have engaged in extreme violent rhetoric, openly calling for the deaths of their perceived detractors.
This ideology is fueled by a radical belief that disagreement equates to existential threat – in other words, if someone opposes trans ideology, they are seen as advocating for the death of trans individuals, thus justifying preemptive violence as a means of self-defense. This is the same justification strategy used by Islamist jihadist groups.
Such violence could occur at any venue, including hotels, and high-profile political figures, journalists, authors, and others who publicly challenge extreme trans ideology are likely targets.
Muir Analytics runs the world’s largest, most sophisticated hotel violence database – the SecureHotel Threat Portal – with over 3,600 hotel attacks (and growing). We can provide the hospitality, insurance, and law enforcement/government sectors with intelligence that facilitates full-spectrum risk reduction, which helps hotels protect guests, staff, buildings, brands, and revenues. Contact us for a consultation: 1-833-DATA-444.
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